List of tasks in Europe for defense without the United States

PARIS – Europe can build most of the critical defense factors needed to deter or defeat Russia without supporting the United States within five years, provided that the political will of investment is present, according to researchers and security experts surveyed by defense news.

European countries are currently dependent on the United States within the NATO alliance for a set of supportive capabilities and assets that allow the fighting forces to act effectively. This subordination is increasingly fraught with risks, as US President Donald Trump indicates his willingness to give up America's allies for a long time and is in line with Russia.

Without critical empowerment factors now provides by the United States, such as leading the battlefield and controlling it (C2), satellite intelligence and a long -term strike, and an alliance from the European Union countries, the United Kingdom and Norway still can defeat Russia in a traditional conflict, but it will be an affair and more Bloody, according to many analysts.

“At the European level, we are in fact not fully working without empowerment factors,” said Sven Pescope, director of the European program in the world at the Royal Institute for International Relations in Brussels.

“This does not mean that you can not do anything, but it will be more connected. A lot of blood, with more people's losses, also from terrain – so we have to solve it urgently.”

Military satellite communications are the region where Europe is closest to adequate capacity, with uninhabited intelligence, monitoring and reconnaissance (ISR), not far, based on the evaluation of 17 experts, mostly experts and institutions in Europe. The majority said that these capabilities are either in place or less than three years.

I asked the defense news to the experts about the amount of time when the European coalition will need to reach an adequate capacity in nine factors for defense, in order to deter or fight Russia without the United States.

Driving and controlling the battlefield, long -range strike and suppressing enemy air defenses (SEAD) are all areas where most analysts expect self -sufficiency within five years. The space -based ISR has emerged because the ability that the respondents was less optimistic, with the majority that you think that Europe will need five to 10 years to stop dependent on the United States

“We are almost completely dependent on the United States' satellite intelligence and everything that suits it,” said Pescope. “This will take some time to develop, we will need several years.”

Experts have been divided into air fuel and strategic air leverage, taking into account one group that Europe has enough aircraft and aircraft transport as it is, and another group of analysts who consider the continent still needs three to five years to achieve an adequate block.

The portable monitoring was another area of ​​divided evaluations, as about half of the analysts considered that Europe had the ability in place or could achieve a critical ability within three years, and the other half is expected to take between three and 10 years.

All estimates depend that European governments are ready to cough the money needed to build enabling factors, with a few NATO members in Europe spend more than 2.5 % of the gross domestic product on the defense in 2024, and about a third does not meet the goal 2 % set by NATO In 2014.

“It is difficult to predict the number and size of the capabilities that we will need to be completely effective against Russia,” said Heleuel Fayette, a researcher at the Frances Dis International, where she is responsible for deterrence and spread. “There are a lot of external variables, such as political preparation for spending more money on defense.”

Russia can be ready to attack the European Union State within three to ten years February 21Quoted from the reviews by NATO, Germany, Poland, Denmark and the Baltic countries.

“This time, anything should spend nothing, as Europe used to do it,” said Leo Beria Begnee, an IFRI researcher who specializes in weapons capacity, and who does not expect Russia. To be a threat to the European Union for at least five years because of its losses in forces and equipment in Ukraine.

“European solutions to the empowerment factors” are not crucial at the present time, and it will be stupid to say anything else, but it exists. “So it can lead to an increase, and we have time to do so. How long will Europe need to build capacity? If everyone is actually doing instead of speaking, it will be strong in five years. “

Pescope said that Europe will not need to match the United States to the empowerment factors, because its ambition is regional defense, not global. “You may not want to get the same numbers, but it is still a big investment.”

“Ukraine held Russia at the gate without most of these enabling factors, and it took most of Russia's strength.”

– Léo péria-partyé, ifri

The example of Poland's military expansion shows capabilities that can be built quickly when governments are committed to financing, according to Beria Begnee. He said that Europe may not need first -class capabilities to defeat a Russian attack.

“Russia is not China,” said Beria Benier. “Ukraine held Russia at the gate without most of these enabling factors, and it took most of Russia's strength. I do not say that it is easy and we can dispense with it, but we can fight Russia without all the enabling factors, and we still have many of them.”

Some analysts mentioned the empowerment factors that were not in the survey, such as combat engineering, wet gap, air, air attack, and improving military mobility,

“The improvement military mobility is a decisive empowerment factor to ensure deterrence,” said Mihai Sebastian Chihia, an analyst at the European Policy Center. “At the present time, the state of infrastructure and organizational issues seriously impedes the movement of the armed forces throughout Europe.”

Empowering factors provide supportive effects that enhance the effectiveness of direct fighting forces, and many analysts indicated that Europe will also need to build the numbers of its forces, additives, artillery and other equipment to compensate for the United States to withdraw from the continent.

“The wild war is the most important ability to accumulate, because the worst scenario is the Russian invasion of the European Union properly, and the expansion of the capabilities of the wild war quickly said Burkov to make the Kremlin decisions.”

The American withdrawal, along with the United States-Russia deal on Ukraine, would allow continuous Russian military accumulation, will require Europe to add 300,000 combat power capabilities, with a focus on mechanical and armored forces, Burilkov and WolFf wrote in their report.

“We have people and the scale, we also have a much larger economy, so we will win a traditional war against Russia,” said Pescope. “What we need is to complete our European power package, so that it works entirely, which then works as a deterrent. To make the Russians think:” We will not start this. “

Below are the results of the survey that raises the question on the amount of time when the European coalition will need to reach adequate ability in nine empowerment factors in order to deter or fight Russia without the United States, the results are based on 17 response, with the exception of satellite communications, which is carried by air control and air lever The strategy, which received 16 replies, and SEAD with 15 replies.

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ASR space -based

ISR is used by satellite -based satellite to collect intelligence, monitor and survey performance. This provides important information about enemy and terrain forces and other factors to support decision -making and increase combat effectiveness.

The United States had 246 military satellites as of May 2023, according to the Union of Scientists concerned, compared to 49 European NATO members, led by France with a score of 15 of the satellite.

“European efforts to expand the space -based ISR capabilities are hindered due to the lack of a operating space port on the continent, a limited launch capacity, and a different cost to launch space between the main European players. Without many space -based ISR capabilities, efforts to develop other European capabilities will suffer, Like a long -term European strike approach, a very long killing chains.

– Rafael, the European Council for Foreign Relations

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Leading and monitoring the battlefield

The battlefield command and monitoring indicates the system and the operations used by military leaders to direct and coordinate forces during operations.

“There will be no convergence on the same C2 network, but the appearance of C2 groups around different alliances/tasks.”

– Loss, ECFR

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Long -term blow

A long -term strike includes weapons systems to provide a traditional load within the scope of confrontation and with high accuracy, in order to achieve strategic or operational goals such as destroying critical infrastructure or high -value targets.

“The Europeans have a number of long -term strikes that are launched by the air, but they lack the depth of the arsenal and must be completed with a long sea -based strike.”

– Loss, ECFR

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Repress Air Defenses Enemy (SEAD)

Sead includes procedures to neutralize or deteriorate the enemy air defense systems to create a safer operating environment for friendly aircraft.

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Air reconnaissance / ISR air

Air poll uses aircraft, including unmanned air systems, to collect visual or electronic intelligence around enemy forces, terrain and other areas of attention.

Poland has developed the uninhabited ISR capacity over the past ten years in response to developments in Ukraine, according to Beria Begnee. “Not everyone is well equipped, but it exists.”

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Satellite communications

It provides safe and reliable communication links to the military forces through large areas.

Many analysts said that Europe has a number of satellites in space, and its use for military purposes is a political decision.

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Monitoring air by air

It is used aircraft equipped with sensors and communications systems for a comprehensive view of the battle space, tracking aircraft, ships and other assets to enhance the circumstantial awareness of the friendly forces.

“It depends on it. If you talk about the armed forces that come out of Europe, they are existing. If you talk about the United States that closes all European devices made in the United States, they are not in place.”

– Péria-partyé, ifri

One of the potential areas of uncertainty is whether Europe will get a multinational fleet of 17 Boeing E-3a AWACS aircraft run by NATO.

“This … will take a long time, to get all of this ourselves.”

– Biscop, egmont

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Air fuel

Fighters and other aircraft aircraft are allowed to receive fuel during flying, expand their range and range, and allow long -term tasks such as maintaining a constant presence on an area.

European countries run 34 Airbus A330, including eight in the NATO group, with eight others in demand, according to Airbus numbers as of January 31.

“Here we already have a lot” – Bissop, Egmont

“On our fuel vector, our fuel is a very good solution in Europe”-Peria Benier, IFRI

“The A330 MRTT is a successful success, but the numbers in the MRTT group are very low.”

– Zandy Dick, Clingngale

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Transport / Strategic Air Transport plane

Rapid publication and measurement is widely allowed for military personnel, equipment and supplies at long distances, and supporting operations far from home bases.

Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Spain, Belgium and the joint Luxembourg are working on a total of 115 heavy Airbus A400M, with another 45 years, according to Airbus data.

“There is very little, but the platform is present” – Biscop, EGMONT

Thanks to the A400 it is very strong. A400 is enough for the European theater.

“It is difficult to evaluate because if the strategic air transport is the project of power outside Europe, Europeans may give the juniors into consideration with the risk of American disengagement.”

– Loss, ECFR